Breaking the Box Office – Can Avengers: Endgame Beat Avatar & The Force Awakens?

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Last weekend, Marvel Studios released Avengers: Endgame. While we thought it would be a financial hit, we never expected it to be as astonishing as it is.

Most people expected it to break Star Wars: The Force Awakens domestic opening weekend record of $257 million, but only by a marginal degree.

Instead, Avengers: Endgame would go from the projected $280 million to finish the weekend domestically at $357 million, shattering the record by a staggering $100 million.

And that is just here in the United States. Worldwide, Avengers: Endgame would end their opening weekend with a total box office of $1.223 billion. This beat the previous record of $640 million set by Avengers: Infinity War by a whopping $583 million.

When you start your box office run with these kind of numbers, the question of just how much it can make comes up over and over again.

The Current Records

The two records I want to talk about today are All Time World Wide Gross and All Time Domestic Gross.

These two, believe it or not, are not held by the same film:

  • 2009’s Avatar currently holds the worldwide gross with $2.788 billion.
  • The domestic gross is held by 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens with a total of $936 million.

These films got their records in two very different ways.

Avatar ended up making over 72% of its total box office outside of the United States backed by the higher ticket prices of its impressive 3D experience. And would keep a top 10 spot in the US box offices for a staggering 14 weeks.

Star Wars, on the other hand, was a return to the franchise after 2005’s Revenge of the Sith, breaking domestic weekend records for first, second, and third weekends of release. The film also was the fastest film to hit $500 million in the US in just ten days.

The Math Behind the Records

So, we’ve already covered what Avengers: Endgame made over its first weekend. But can it logically make it to All Time World Wide Gross and All Time Domestic Gross?

Let’s take a look at the math.

Going into the movie’s second weekend (as of May 2nd), the US total is $452 million with $1.664 billion worldwide.

This weekend is projected to make $168 million in the US and $642 million worldwide according to BoxOfficeReport.com. This would drop the film about 53% from its opening weekend numbers.

Usually, the larger the first-weekend box office, the larger the drop off. And if we look at Avengers: Infinity War as a comparison, it had a 55.5% drop from weekend one to weekend two. But based on good word of mouth and high critical reception, I can see how a 53% drop would be realistic.

At the same time, if weekend one taught us anything about this film, it’s to expect the unexpected with the box office take.

If that 53% holds, we’re looking at the end of the weekend to be around $620 million in the US and $2.306 billion worldwide. This would mean Avengers: Endgame wouldn’t quite make it, and would be $316 million and $482 million away from reaching the top of the US and World Wide box office, respecitvely.

Since we are working with Avengers: Infinity War as our base, we can assume that Avengers: Endgame will be in the cinemas for 20 weeks. Let’s also assume Endgame will make roughly the same as Infinity war, which was $225 million in the last 18 weeks in just the US.

If this happened, it would bring the total for the US box office to $845 million –  about $91 million short of Star Wars: The Force Awakens in US box office.

Though at this point, without adding more foreign box office, Avengers: Endgame would be sitting $257 million short of Avatar’s worldwide record.

Is it Possible?

This is the question of the hour: Is it possible for Avengers: Endgame to hit the records for All Time World Wide Gross and All Time Domestic Gross?

With the math that’s presented, I’m not100% certaint whether it’s possible for the movie to hit these records.

The last time the records were broken, the breaking films released in December when there was little to no competition. This time, Avengers: Endgame released at the beginning of the summer movie season. Competition is fierce with movies like Detective Pikachu, Aladdin, and Godzilla: King of Monsters in the first month alone.

With all logical thinking out of the way, you won’t see me saying it’s impossible for Avengers: Endgame to hold both of these records by the time it’s done in cinemas.

After that first weekend blowing away all expectations, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it steamroll to over $1 billion in the US and almost $3 billion worldwide.

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